Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.69
Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku preview and prediction
The match
Neftchi Baku host Safa Baku in the Premyer Liqa on Saturday 5 September, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT) at Palms Sports Arena. Neftchi Baku are 1st with 24 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Safa Baku sit 11th on 5 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Neftchi Baku's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to Zira 0–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Safa Baku's last 5: LWLLD Most recently they lost to Imisli FK 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Neftchi Baku arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.8 for Neftchi Baku and 0.5 for Safa Baku. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 47%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Neftchi Baku 69%, draw 20%, Safa Baku 11%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Neftchi Baku to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Neftchi Baku 1–0 Safa Baku. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Neftchi Baku69%fair 1.45 · @1.25
Draw20%fair 4.95 · @4.80
Safa Baku11%fair 9.45 · @11.00
2.33Expected goals
1.81Neftchi Baku xG
0.52Safa Baku xG
47%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–016%
0–010%
3–010%
1–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Neftchi Baku 1.8 – 0.5 Safa Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi Baku to win✓
69%
1.45
1.25
Double chance
Neftchi Baku or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.04
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
–
Half-time result
Neftchi Baku ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi Baku / FT Neftchi Baku✓
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.69
–
Form
Neftchi Baku – last 6
LWWWLW
30 Aug
@ Zira
0–1
L
23 Aug
vs Araz
5–0
W
16 Aug
@ Sumqayıt
3–1
W
30 Jul
@ Dinamo Minsk
1–0
W
22 Jul
vs Dinamo Minsk
2–4
L
10 Jul
@ Radnicki NIS
3–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Safa Baku – last 6
LWLLDD
29 Aug
vs Imisli FK
0–1
L
22 Aug
@ Qabala
1–0
W
16 Aug
@ Zira
0–2
L
22 May
@ Zaqatala
1–2
L
6 May
@ Difai Ağsu
0–0
D
29 Apr
vs Şimal
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Neftchi Baku and Safa Baku.
What is the prediction for Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku?
Our pick is Neftchi Baku to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku?
On our numbers Neftchi Baku have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Safa Baku 11%.
How many goals will there be in Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku?
Our predicted score is Neftchi Baku 1–0 Safa Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku?
Neftchi Baku vs Safa Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Palms Sports Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
