Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
1
Value bet: Avellino to win @ 2.70 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAvellino to win ✓40% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.53
Avellino vs Sampdoria preview and prediction
The match
Avellino host Sampdoria in the Serie B on Friday 9 October, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Partenio-Adriano Lombardi. Avellino are 5th with 16 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Sampdoria sit 15th on 11 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Avellino's last 5: LDWWL Most recently they lost to Ascoli 1–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Sampdoria's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat Catanzaro 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Avellino arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 March 2026, finished Sampdoria 2–1 Avellino.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Avellino and 1.3 for Sampdoria. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 60%.
Value angle: Avellino to win at 2.70 – 40% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.65, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Avellino 1–1 Sampdoria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Avellino40%fair 2.48 · @2.70
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.00
Sampdoria34%fair 2.90 · @2.50
2.70Expected goals
1.41Avellino xG
1.29Sampdoria xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Avellino 1.4 – 1.3 Sampdoria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Avellino vs Sampdoria?
On our numbers Avellino have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sampdoria 34%.
How many goals will there be in Avellino vs Sampdoria?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Avellino vs Sampdoria?
Our predicted score is Avellino 1–1 Sampdoria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Avellino vs Sampdoria?
Avellino vs Sampdoria (Serie B) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
