AD Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC prediction & analysis
62%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
1
Value bet: AD Carmelita to win @ 2.40 – our chance 46% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAD Carmelita to win ✗46% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.90
AD Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC preview and prediction
The match
AD Carmelita host Guadalupe FC in the Liga De Ascenso on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 03:00 (WAT). AD Carmelita are 11th with 16 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Guadalupe FC sit 7th on 21 points (in the top half).
Form guide
AD Carmelita's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat Futbol Consultants Moravia 3–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Guadalupe FC's last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat Aserri FC 3–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.
AD Carmelita arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 25 August 2026, finished Guadalupe FC 0–1 AD Carmelita.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.7 for AD Carmelita and 1.4 for Guadalupe FC. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: AD Carmelita 46%, draw 23%, Guadalupe FC 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.57.
Value angle: AD Carmelita to win at 2.40 – 46% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 62% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: AD Carmelita 1–1 Guadalupe FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AD Carmelita46%fair 2.18 · @2.40
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.00
Guadalupe FC32%fair 3.16 · @2.75
3.10Expected goals
1.71AD Carmelita xG
1.39Guadalupe FC xG
62%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–27%
2–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: AD Carmelita 1.7 – 1.4 Guadalupe FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for AD Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win AD Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC?
On our numbers AD Carmelita have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Guadalupe FC 32%.
How many goals will there be in AD Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AD Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC?
Our predicted score is AD Carmelita 1–1 Guadalupe FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is AD Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC?
AD Carmelita vs Guadalupe FC (Liga De Ascenso) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
