Value bet: Aserri FC to win @ 2.55 – our chance 43% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAserri FC to win ✓43% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 11.34
Santa Cruz FC vs Aserri FC preview and prediction
The match
The Liga De Ascenso sees Santa Cruz FC take on Aserri FC on Sunday 30 August, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Santa Cruz FC's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to ADR Jicaral 1–4 away. They average 1.3 scored and 2.7 conceded.
Aserri FC's last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat AD Carmelita 2–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Aserri FC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.4 for Santa Cruz FC and 1.6 for Aserri FC. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 54% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santa Cruz FC 36%, draw 21%, Aserri FC 43%.
Value angle: Aserri FC to win at 2.55 – 43% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 57% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: Santa Cruz FC 1–2 Aserri FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santa Cruz FC36%fair 2.79 · @2.25
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.60
Aserri FC43%fair 2.34 · @2.55
2.99Expected goals
1.42Santa Cruz FC xG
1.57Aserri FC xG
54%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Santa Cruz FC 1.4 – 1.6 Aserri FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aserri FC to win✓
43%
2.34
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aserri FC / FT Aserri FC✓
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
11.34
–
Form
Santa Cruz FC – last 6
LLWLLW
23 Aug
@ ADR Jicaral
1–4
L
16 Aug
vs Municipal Grecia
1–2
L
9 Aug
vs AD Cofutpa
3–1
W
2 Aug
@ Quepos Cambute
0–4
L
25 Apr
@ Escorpiones Belén
1–4
L
29 Mar
@ Deportivo Upala
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Aserri FC – last 6
WWDLWL
28 Aug
@ AD Carmelita
2–1
W
24 Aug
vs Municipal Grecia
3–2
W
22 Aug
vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1–1
D
16 Aug
@ Quepos Cambute
1–2
L
15 Aug
@ Guadalupe FC
2–0
W
1 Aug
@ Santa Ana
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santa Cruz FC and Aserri FC.
What is the prediction for Santa Cruz FC vs Aserri FC?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Santa Cruz FC vs Aserri FC?
On our numbers Santa Cruz FC have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Aserri FC 43%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Cruz FC vs Aserri FC?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santa Cruz FC vs Aserri FC?
Our predicted score is Santa Cruz FC 1–2 Aserri FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Santa Cruz FC vs Aserri FC?
Santa Cruz FC vs Aserri FC (Liga De Ascenso) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
