Segunda División · Chile · Estadio Municipal de SalamancaMunicipal Salamanca vs Provincial Osorno prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Provincial Osorno to win @ 2.90 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Municipal Salamanca 0.9 – 0.9 Provincial Osorno expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Municipal Salamanca and Provincial Osorno on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Municipal Salamanca have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.7 per game. Provincial Osorno have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. Municipal Salamanca come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 1.9 goals (0.9 for Municipal Salamanca, 0.9 for Provincial Osorno). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–0 (15%), 0–1 (14%), 1–0 (14%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is better than our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Provincial Osorno to win at 2.90 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Provincial Osorno to win ✗ | 38% | 2.63 | 2.90 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 60% | 1.67 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.77 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 51% | 1.95 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 23% | 4.32 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 14% | 7.02 | – |
Form
Municipal Salamanca – last 6
| 1 Sep | @ Colchagua | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | vs Concón National | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Jul | @ Trasandino | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Jul | vs Concón National | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Jun | vs Real San Joaquín | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Jun | @ Colina | 2–1 | W |
Provincial Osorno – last 6
| 29 Aug | vs Trasandino | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | @ Linares Unido | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | vs Concón National | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Jul | @ Lota Schwager | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Jul | vs General Velásquez | 3–0 | W |
| 21 Jun | @ Colchagua | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Municipal Salamanca and Provincial Osorno.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Provincial Osorno | 12 | +10 | 24 |
| 2 |  Municipal Salamanca | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 3 |  Colchagua | 12 | +4 | 22 |
| 4 |  Concón National | 12 | +6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Santiago City | 12 | -1 | 20 |
| 6 |  Linares Unido | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 7 |  Trasandino | 12 | +2 | 18 |
| 8 |  General Velásquez | 12 | -4 | 16 |
| 9 |  Real San Joaquín | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 |  Lota Schwager | 12 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 |  Colina | 12 | +1 | 12 |
| 12 |  Deportes Rengo | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 |  Santiago Morning | 12 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 |  Provincial Ovalle | 12 | -13 | 6 |
More Segunda División predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Municipal Salamanca vs Provincial Osorno?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Municipal Salamanca vs Provincial Osorno?
On our numbers Municipal Salamanca have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Provincial Osorno 38%.
How many goals will there be in Municipal Salamanca vs Provincial Osorno?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
When is Municipal Salamanca vs Provincial Osorno?
Municipal Salamanca vs Provincial Osorno (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Salamanca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.