Provincial Ovalle vs Deportes Rengo prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Provincial Ovalle or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
1
Value bet: Provincial Ovalle to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultProvincial Ovalle to win ✗57% · @1.95
Double chanceProvincial Ovalle or draw ✗79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.21
Provincial Ovalle vs Deportes Rengo preview and prediction
The match
Deportes Rengo travel to Estadio Diaguita in the Segunda División on Saturday 3 October (21:00 WAT) to face Provincial Ovalle. Provincial Ovalle are 14th with 6 points from 12 games (in the bottom three), while Deportes Rengo sit 12th on 11 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Provincial Ovalle's last 5: WWDDL Most recently they beat Lota Schwager 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Deportes Rengo's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Santiago Morning 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.6 for Provincial Ovalle and 0.8 for Deportes Rengo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 55%.
Safer route: Provincial Ovalle or draw (79%) at 1.30.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Provincial Ovalle to win at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Provincial Ovalle or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.27, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Provincial Ovalle 1–0 Deportes Rengo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Provincial Ovalle57%fair 1.76 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.30
Deportes Rengo21%fair 4.75 · @3.20
2.45Expected goals
1.61Provincial Ovalle xG
0.84Deportes Rengo xG
55%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Provincial Ovalle 1.6 – 0.8 Deportes Rengo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Provincial Ovalle to win✗
57%
1.76
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Provincial Ovalle or draw✗
79%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Provincial Ovalle / FT Provincial Ovalle✗
34%
2.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.21
–
Form
Provincial Ovalle – last 6
WWDDLW
26 Sep
@ Lota Schwager
2–1
W
7 Sep
vs Colina
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Santiago Morning
0–0
D
22 Aug
vs Real San Joaquín
1–1
D
16 Aug
@ General Velásquez
0–1
L
4 Jul
vs Colina
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Deportes Rengo – last 6
DWDWWL
6 Sep
vs Santiago Morning
2–2
D
31 Aug
@ Real San Joaquín
5–2
W
22 Aug
vs General Velásquez
1–1
D
16 Aug
vs Lota Schwager
1–0
W
8 Aug
@ Colina
1–0
W
12 Jul
@ General Velásquez
0–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Provincial Ovalle and Deportes Rengo.
What is the prediction for Provincial Ovalle vs Deportes Rengo?
Our pick is Provincial Ovalle or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Provincial Ovalle vs Deportes Rengo?
On our numbers Provincial Ovalle have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Deportes Rengo 21%.
How many goals will there be in Provincial Ovalle vs Deportes Rengo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Provincial Ovalle vs Deportes Rengo?
Our predicted score is Provincial Ovalle 1–0 Deportes Rengo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Provincial Ovalle vs Deportes Rengo?
Provincial Ovalle vs Deportes Rengo (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Diaguita.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
