Value bet: Águila to win @ 3.25 – our chance 33% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFirpo to win ✓44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.05
Firpo vs Águila preview and prediction
The match
Firpo host Águila in the Primera Division on Sunday 27 September, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT). Firpo are 1st with 40 points from 20 games (top of the table), while Águila sit 4th on 30 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Firpo's last 5: DWLLL Most recently they drew with Cacahuatique 0–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Águila's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Platense 1–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Águila arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 July 2026, finished Águila 1–1 Firpo. Across their last 3 meetings Firpo have won 1, Águila 0, with 2 draws and 2.3 goals per game; both teams scored in 3 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.4 for Firpo and 1.1 for Águila. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Firpo 44%, draw 22%, Águila 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Águila to win at 3.25 – 33% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.74, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Firpo 1–1 Águila. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Firpo44%fair 2.27 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.44 · @3.00
Águila33%fair 2.99 · @3.25
2.52Expected goals
1.37Firpo xG
1.15Águila xG
57%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Firpo 1.4 – 1.1 Águila expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Firpo vs Águila?
On our numbers Firpo have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Águila 33%.
How many goals will there be in Firpo vs Águila?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Firpo vs Águila?
Our predicted score is Firpo 1–1 Águila, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Firpo vs Águila?
Firpo vs Águila (Primera Division) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
