Value bet: Municipal Limeño to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlianza to win ✓41% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.92
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.06
Alianza vs Municipal Limeño preview and prediction
The match
Municipal Limeño travel to face Alianza in the Primera Division on Sunday 20 September (22:00 WAT). Alianza are 7th with 26 points from 19 games (in the bottom half), while Municipal Limeño sit 8th on 23 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Alianza's last 5: DLDWD Most recently they drew with CD Motagua 0–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Municipal Limeño's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Fuerte San Francisco 2–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Municipal Limeño arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 19 April 2026, finished Municipal Limeño 0–0 Alianza. Across their last 2 meetings Alianza have won 1, Municipal Limeño 0, with 1 draw and 0.5 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Alianza and 1.2 for Municipal Limeño. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alianza 41%, draw 24%, Municipal Limeño 35%.
Value angle: Municipal Limeño to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 55% chance at odds of 1.73. Predicted score: Alianza 1–1 Municipal Limeño. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alianza41%fair 2.47 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.10
Municipal Limeño35%fair 2.83 · @3.10
2.45Expected goals
1.28Alianza xG
1.17Municipal Limeño xG
48%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Alianza 1.3 – 1.2 Municipal Limeño expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Alianza vs Municipal Limeño?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Alianza vs Municipal Limeño?
On our numbers Alianza have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Municipal Limeño 35%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza vs Municipal Limeño?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza vs Municipal Limeño?
Our predicted score is Alianza 1–1 Municipal Limeño, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Alianza vs Municipal Limeño?
Alianza vs Municipal Limeño (Primera Division) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
