Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: FAS to win @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFAS to win ✓61% · @1.80
Double chanceFAS or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.35
FAS vs Alianza preview and prediction
The match
The Primera Division sees FAS take on Alianza on Friday 9 October, kicking off at 02:30 (WAT). FAS are 2nd with 33 points from 19 games (in the top four), while Alianza sit 7th on 26 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
FAS's last 5: DWWDW Most recently they drew with Inca Aruba 1–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Alianza's last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with Firpo 2–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
FAS arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 April 2026, finished Alianza 0–2 FAS. Across their last 2 meetings FAS have won 2, Alianza 0, with 0 draws and 3.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for FAS and 0.8 for Alianza. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: FAS 61%, draw 26%, Alianza 13%.
Safer route: FAS or draw (87%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.91.
Value angle: FAS to win at 1.80 – 61% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FAS or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FAS 1–0 Alianza. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FAS61%fair 1.64 · @1.80
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @3.20
Alianza13%fair 7.43 · @4.00
2.60Expected goals
1.83FAS xG
0.77Alianza xG
52%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: FAS 1.8 – 0.8 Alianza expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is FAS or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win FAS vs Alianza?
On our numbers FAS have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Alianza 13%.
How many goals will there be in FAS vs Alianza?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FAS vs Alianza?
Our predicted score is FAS 1–0 Alianza, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is FAS vs Alianza?
FAS vs Alianza (Primera Division) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
