Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultQarabag to win ✓66% · @1.50
Double chanceQarabag or draw ✓87% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.63
Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK preview and prediction
The match
Şamaxı FK travel to Tofiq Bahramov Stadium in the Premyer Liqa on Monday 17 August (16:30 WAT) to face Qarabag. Qarabag are 4th with 19 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Şamaxı FK sit 7th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Qarabag's last 5: WLDDW Most recently they beat Dynamo Kyiv 2–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Şamaxı FK's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Qabala 1–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Qarabag arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 4 March 2026, finished Qarabag 3–1 Keshla FC.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.3 for Qarabag and 0.9 for Şamaxı FK. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 62% and both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Qarabag 66%, draw 21%, Şamaxı FK 13%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.60.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Qarabag to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Qarabag 2–0 Şamaxı FK. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Qarabag66%fair 1.52 · @1.50
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @4.33
Şamaxı FK13%fair 7.62 · @5.00
3.20Expected goals
2.26Qarabag xG
0.94Şamaxı FK xG
59%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Qarabag 2.3 – 0.9 Şamaxı FK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Qarabag to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK?
On our numbers Qarabag have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Şamaxı FK 13%.
How many goals will there be in Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK?
Our predicted score is Qarabag 2–0 Şamaxı FK, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK?
Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
