Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United prediction & analysis
83%
Footrivo pick
Bangkok United or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.29 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.29Odds
1
Value bet: Bangkok United to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBangkok United to win ✓59% · @1.91
Double chanceBangkok United or draw ✓83% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.14
Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United preview and prediction
The match
Bangkok United host BG Pathum United in the Thai League 1 on Sunday 20 September, with kick-off at 13:00 (WAT) at Thammasat Stadium. Bangkok United are 2nd with 16 points from 8 games (in the top four), while BG Pathum United sit 7th on 12 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Bangkok United's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to Ratchaburi 0–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
BG Pathum United's last 5: DWDLW Most recently they drew with Home United 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Bangkok United and 0.8 for BG Pathum United. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bangkok United 59%, draw 23%, BG Pathum United 17%.
Safer route: Bangkok United or draw (83%) at 1.29.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Bangkok United to win at 1.91 – 59% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Bangkok United or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.29, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Bangkok United 1–0 BG Pathum United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bangkok United59%fair 1.69 · @1.91
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.30
BG Pathum United17%fair 5.74 · @3.40
2.50Expected goals
1.71Bangkok United xG
0.79BG Pathum United xG
58%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Bangkok United 1.7 – 0.8 BG Pathum United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bangkok United to win✓
59%
1.69
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Bangkok United or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.29 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bangkok United / FT Bangkok United✗
37%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.14
–
Form
Bangkok United – last 6
LWDWDD
11 Sep
@ Ratchaburi
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Sisaket United
3–1
W
10 May
@ Rayong FC
1–1
D
2 May
vs Ayutthaya FC
4–1
W
29 Apr
@ Uthai Thani
1–1
D
22 Apr
@ Svay Rieng
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
BG Pathum United – last 6
DWDLWL
17 Sep
@ Home United
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Rasi Salai United
3–2
W
4 Sep
@ Pattani
0–0
D
4 Aug
vs Aston Villa
1–3
L
12 Jul
@ Roi Et
5–0
W
24 May
vs Port FC
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bangkok United and BG Pathum United.
What is the prediction for Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United?
Our pick is Bangkok United or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United?
On our numbers Bangkok United have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and BG Pathum United 17%.
How many goals will there be in Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United?
Our predicted score is Bangkok United 1–0 BG Pathum United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United?
Bangkok United vs BG Pathum United (Thai League 1) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Thammasat Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
