Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultHercílio Luz to win ✓43% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · fair 1.75
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗64% · @1.60
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.91
Hercílio Luz vs Barra preview and prediction
The match
Hercílio Luz host Barra in the Copa Santa Catarina on Saturday 17 October, with kick-off at 22:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Hercílio Luz's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Figueirense 0–1 away. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Barra's last 5: DLDDD Most recently they drew with Metropolitano 3–3 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Hercílio Luz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 1.9 for Hercílio Luz and 1.7 for Barra. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Hercílio Luz 43%, draw 22%, Barra 35%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.60, above our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Hercílio Luz 2–1 Barra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Hercílio Luz43%fair 2.34 · @2.25
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.50
Barra35%fair 2.86 · @2.62
3.58Expected goals
1.88Hercílio Luz xG
1.69Barra xG
57%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
3–15%
1–05%
From our goals model: Hercílio Luz 1.9 – 1.7 Barra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hercílio Luz to win✓
43%
2.34
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
36%
2.81
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hercílio Luz / FT Hercílio Luz✓
26%
3.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.91
–
Form
Hercílio Luz – last 6
LWLWWW
10 Oct
@ Figueirense
0–1
L
26 Sep
vs Nação
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ Marcílio Dias
2–4
L
12 Sep
@ Joinville
3–1
W
30 Aug
vs Metropolitano
4–2
W
25 Jul
@ Nação
2–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Barra – last 6
DLDDDW
11 Oct
vs Metropolitano
3–3
D
26 Sep
@ Joinville
1–2
L
23 Sep
vs Nação
3–3
D
15 Sep
vs Blumenau
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ Figueirense
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Volta Redonda
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hercílio Luz and Barra.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Hercílio Luz vs Barra?
On our numbers Hercílio Luz have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Barra 35%.
How many goals will there be in Hercílio Luz vs Barra?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hercílio Luz vs Barra?
Our predicted score is Hercílio Luz 2–1 Barra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Hercílio Luz vs Barra?
Hercílio Luz vs Barra (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
