Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.73 – our chance 62% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMarcílio Dias to win ✗70% · @1.45
Double chanceMarcílio Dias or draw ✓90% · fair 1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.89
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗62% · @1.73
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗10% · fair 10.33
Nação vs Marcílio Dias preview and prediction
The match
Marcílio Dias travel to face Nação in the Copa Santa Catarina on Friday 9 October (19:00 WAT).
Form guide
Nação's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to Hercílio Luz 1–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Marcílio Dias's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Blumenau 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Marcílio Dias arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 1.0 for Nação and 2.6 for Marcílio Dias. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 53% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nação 10%, draw 20%, Marcílio Dias 70%.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 – 62% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Marcílio Dias to win – a 70% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Nação 0–2 Marcílio Dias. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nação10%fair 10.39 · @5.75
Draw20%fair 4.88 · @3.90
Marcílio Dias70%fair 1.43 · @1.45
3.53Expected goals
0.96Nação xG
2.57Marcílio Dias xG
53%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–210%
1–29%
0–38%
1–38%
0–18%
1–17%
From our goals model: Nação 1.0 – 2.6 Marcílio Dias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marcílio Dias to win✗
70%
1.43
1.45
Double chance
Marcílio Dias or draw✓
90%
1.11
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
1.73 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time result
Marcílio Dias ahead at half-time✗
54%
1.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marcílio Dias / FT Marcílio Dias✗
49%
2.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
10%
10.33
–
Form
Nação – last 6
LDLLDL
26 Sep
@ Hercílio Luz
1–2
L
23 Sep
@ Barra
3–3
D
19 Sep
vs Joinville
0–4
L
12 Sep
@ Figueirense
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Santa Catarina
2–2
D
25 Jul
vs Hercílio Luz
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Marcílio Dias – last 6
DWLWWL
26 Sep
@ Blumenau
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Hercílio Luz
4–2
W
13 Sep
@ Santa Catarina
1–2
L
7 Sep
@ Metropolitano
5–2
W
30 Aug
vs Joinville
4–2
W
11 Jul
@ Portuguesa
0–2
L
2.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nação and Marcílio Dias.
What is the prediction for Nação vs Marcílio Dias?
Our pick is Marcílio Dias to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Nação vs Marcílio Dias?
On our numbers Nação have a 10% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Marcílio Dias 70%.
How many goals will there be in Nação vs Marcílio Dias?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nação vs Marcílio Dias?
Our predicted score is Nação 0–2 Marcílio Dias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Nação vs Marcílio Dias?
Nação vs Marcílio Dias (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
