Value bet: Hercílio Luz to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFigueirense to win ✓45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · fair 2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓9% · fair 11.09
Figueirense vs Hercílio Luz preview and prediction
The match
The Copa Santa Catarina sees Figueirense take on Hercílio Luz on Saturday 10 October, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Figueirense's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Metropolitano 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Hercílio Luz's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Nação 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Figueirense and 1.3 for Hercílio Luz. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 50%.
Value angle: Hercílio Luz to win at 3.25 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 51% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Figueirense 1–1 Hercílio Luz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Figueirense45%fair 2.23 · @2.00
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.25
Hercílio Luz34%fair 2.94 · @3.25
2.84Expected goals
1.54Figueirense xG
1.30Hercílio Luz xG
50%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Figueirense 1.5 – 1.3 Hercílio Luz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Figueirense to win✓
45%
2.23
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Figueirense / FT Figueirense✗
26%
3.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
9%
11.09
–
Form
Figueirense – last 6
WWWDWD
27 Sep
@ Metropolitano
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Santa Catarina
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs Nação
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Barra
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Maranhão
2–1
W
23 Aug
@ Inter De Limeira
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Hercílio Luz – last 6
WLWWWD
26 Sep
vs Nação
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ Marcílio Dias
2–4
L
12 Sep
@ Joinville
3–1
W
30 Aug
vs Metropolitano
4–2
W
25 Jul
@ Nação
2–1
W
23 Jul
vs Caravaggio
0–0
D
2.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Figueirense and Hercílio Luz.
What is the prediction for Figueirense vs Hercílio Luz?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Figueirense vs Hercílio Luz?
On our numbers Figueirense have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Hercílio Luz 34%.
How many goals will there be in Figueirense vs Hercílio Luz?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Figueirense vs Hercílio Luz?
Our predicted score is Figueirense 1–1 Hercílio Luz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Figueirense vs Hercílio Luz?
Figueirense vs Hercílio Luz (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
