Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSanta Catarina to win ✗63% · @1.57
Double chanceSanta Catarina or draw ✓85% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗63% · fair 1.59
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗64% · @1.75
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗23% · fair 4.38
Nação vs Santa Catarina preview and prediction
The match
The Copa Santa Catarina sees Nação take on Santa Catarina on Sunday 6 September, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Nação's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Hercílio Luz 1–2 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Santa Catarina's last 5: WDDWW Most recently they beat Blumenau 1–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Santa Catarina arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.4 for Nação and 1.3 for Santa Catarina. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nação 15%, draw 22%, Santa Catarina 63%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Nação 0–1 Santa Catarina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nação15%fair 6.45 · @5.00
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.60
Santa Catarina63%fair 1.60 · @1.57
1.76Expected goals
0.43Nação xG
1.32Santa Catarina xG
37%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–123%
0–017%
0–215%
1–110%
1–07%
0–37%
From our goals model: Nação 0.4 – 1.3 Santa Catarina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santa Catarina to win✗
63%
1.60
1.57
Double chance
Santa Catarina or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.75 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santa Catarina / FT Santa Catarina✗
35%
2.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
23%
4.38
–
Form
Nação – last 6
LWDWLL
25 Jul
vs Hercílio Luz
1–2
L
22 Jul
@ Blumenau
2–0
W
18 Jul
vs Caravaggio
2–2
D
15 Jul
@ Jaraguá
2–0
W
12 Jul
vs Fluminense-SC
1–2
L
5 Jul
@ Tubarao
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Santa Catarina – last 6
WDDWWL
29 Aug
@ Blumenau
1–0
W
27 Jun
vs Sao Jose
1–1
D
21 Jun
@ Sao Jose
1–1
D
7 Jun
vs Cascavel
1–0
W
31 May
@ Cianorte
3–1
W
5 Apr
@ Cascavel
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nação and Santa Catarina.
What is the prediction for Nação vs Santa Catarina?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Nação vs Santa Catarina?
On our numbers Nação have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Santa Catarina 63%.
How many goals will there be in Nação vs Santa Catarina?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nação vs Santa Catarina?
Our predicted score is Nação 0–1 Santa Catarina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Nação vs Santa Catarina?
Nação vs Santa Catarina (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
