Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.85 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.85Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAl-Gharafa to win ✗59% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✗85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.40
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.27
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha preview and prediction
The match
The Stars League sees Al-Gharafa take on Al Ahli Doha on Thursday 22 October, kicking off at 17:45 (WAT) at Al Gharafa Stadium . Al-Gharafa are 10th with 9 points from 9 games (in the bottom three), while Al Ahli Doha sit 7th on 12 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Al-Gharafa's last 5: DLLWL Most recently they drew with Al-Rayyan SC 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Al Ahli Doha's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to Al Wakrah 0–3 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 18 March 2026, finished Al-Gharafa 1–4 Al Ahli Doha.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.0 for Al-Gharafa and 1.2 for Al Ahli Doha. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Al-Gharafa 59%, draw 15%, Al Ahli Doha 26%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.40.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Al-Gharafa to win – a 59% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.69, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Al-Gharafa 2–1 Al Ahli Doha. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Al-Gharafa59%fair 1.69 · @1.85
Draw15%fair 6.88 · @3.80
Al Ahli Doha26%fair 3.83 · @3.20
3.25Expected goals
2.03Al-Gharafa xG
1.22Al Ahli Doha xG
64%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–110%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Al-Gharafa 2.0 – 1.2 Al Ahli Doha expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?
Our pick is Al-Gharafa to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?
On our numbers Al-Gharafa have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Al Ahli Doha 26%.
How many goals will there be in Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?
Our predicted score is Al-Gharafa 2–1 Al Ahli Doha, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha (Stars League) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Al Gharafa Stadium .
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
