Value bet: União Santarém to win @ 3.28 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMafra to win ✗44% · @2.04
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.24
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.68
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.13
União Santarém vs Mafra preview and prediction
The match
The Liga 3 sees União Santarém take on Mafra on Friday 6 November, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Campo Cha das Padeiras. União Santarém are 4th with 13 points from 9 games (in the top four), while Mafra sit 5th on 12 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
União Santarém's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Atlético CP 1–3 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Mafra's last 5: WDDDD Most recently they beat Louletano 2–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
União Santarém arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 April 2026, finished Mafra 2–1 União Santarém. Across their last 2 meetings União Santarém have won 1, Mafra 1, with 0 draws and 3.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.3 for União Santarém and 1.6 for Mafra. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: União Santarém to win at 3.28 – 34% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.24. Predicted score: União Santarém 1–1 Mafra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
União Santarém34%fair 2.94 · @3.28
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.18
Mafra44%fair 2.27 · @2.04
2.90Expected goals
1.34União Santarém xG
1.56Mafra xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: União Santarém 1.3 – 1.6 Mafra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for União Santarém vs Mafra?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win União Santarém vs Mafra?
On our numbers União Santarém have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Mafra 44%.
How many goals will there be in União Santarém vs Mafra?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for União Santarém vs Mafra?
Our predicted score is União Santarém 1–1 Mafra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is União Santarém vs Mafra?
União Santarém vs Mafra (Liga 3) kicks off on Friday 6 November 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo Cha das Padeiras.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
