Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Fafe to win @ 1.91 – our chance 63% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFafe to win ✓63% · @1.91
Double chanceFafe or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.15
Fafe vs Pacos Ferreira preview and prediction
The match
The Liga 3 sees Fafe take on Pacos Ferreira on Friday 30 October, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT) at Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe. Fafe are 4th with 13 points from 9 games (in the top four), while Pacos Ferreira sit 8th on 11 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Fafe's last 5: DLDWL Most recently they drew with AD Marco 09 0–0 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Pacos Ferreira's last 5: WWDDD Most recently they beat Leça 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 29 August 2026, finished Pacos Ferreira 0–0 Fafe.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Fafe and 0.6 for Pacos Ferreira. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 49%.
Value angle: Fafe to win at 1.91 – 63% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Fafe or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Fafe 1–0 Pacos Ferreira. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fafe63%fair 1.59 · @1.91
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.00
Pacos Ferreira13%fair 7.91 · @3.80
2.36Expected goals
1.72Fafe xG
0.64Pacos Ferreira xG
49%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Fafe 1.7 – 0.6 Pacos Ferreira expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Fafe vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our pick is Fafe or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Fafe vs Pacos Ferreira?
On our numbers Fafe have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Pacos Ferreira 13%.
How many goals will there be in Fafe vs Pacos Ferreira?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fafe vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our predicted score is Fafe 1–0 Pacos Ferreira, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Fafe vs Pacos Ferreira?
Fafe vs Pacos Ferreira (Liga 3) kicks off on Friday 30 October 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
