Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
2
Value bet: Leça to win @ 2.80 – our chance 42% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeça to win ✗42% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 10.71
Pacos Ferreira vs Leça preview and prediction
The match
The Liga 3 sees Pacos Ferreira take on Leça on Friday 23 October, kicking off at 20:30 (WAT). Pacos Ferreira are 8th with 11 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Leça sit 2nd on 14 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Pacos Ferreira's last 5: WDDDL Most recently they beat Guimaraes B 1–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Leça's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Penafiel 1–0 away. On the road they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Leça arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.3 for Pacos Ferreira and 1.5 for Leça. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 60%.
Value angle: Leça to win at 2.80 – 42% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.66, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Pacos Ferreira 1–1 Leça. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pacos Ferreira34%fair 2.96 · @2.38
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Leça42%fair 2.40 · @2.80
2.75Expected goals
1.29Pacos Ferreira xG
1.46Leça xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Pacos Ferreira 1.3 – 1.5 Leça expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leça to win✗
42%
2.40
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leça / FT Leça✗
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
10.71
–
Form
Pacos Ferreira – last 6
WDDDLL
11 Oct
@ Guimaraes B
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs São João Ver
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Vianense
2–2
D
29 Aug
vs Fafe
0–0
D
22 Aug
vs Varzim
1–4
L
15 Aug
vs Paredes
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Leça – last 6
WWWWLW
17 Oct
@ Penafiel
1–0
W
10 Oct
vs AD Marco 09
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Mortágua
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ Trofense
4–1
W
6 Sep
vs Fafe
0–3
L
23 Aug
@ Paredes
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pacos Ferreira and Leça.
What is the prediction for Pacos Ferreira vs Leça?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Pacos Ferreira vs Leça?
On our numbers Pacos Ferreira have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Leça 42%.
How many goals will there be in Pacos Ferreira vs Leça?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pacos Ferreira vs Leça?
Our predicted score is Pacos Ferreira 1–1 Leça, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Pacos Ferreira vs Leça?
Pacos Ferreira vs Leça (Liga 3) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
