Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Fafe to win @ 1.91 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFafe to win ✗62% · @1.91
Double chanceFafe or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.91
Fafe vs Guimaraes B preview and prediction
The match
The Liga 3 sees Fafe take on Guimaraes B on Friday 21 August, kicking off at 20:30 (WAT) at Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe. Fafe are 4th with 13 points from 9 games (in the top four), while Guimaraes B sit 5th on 12 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Fafe's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat São João Ver 3–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Guimaraes B's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Leça 2–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Fafe and 0.7 for Guimaraes B. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fafe 62%, draw 23%, Guimaraes B 15%.
Safer route: Fafe or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Fafe to win at 1.91 – 62% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Fafe or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Fafe 1–0 Guimaraes B. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fafe62%fair 1.62 · @1.91
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.00
Guimaraes B15%fair 6.61 · @3.80
2.50Expected goals
1.76Fafe xG
0.74Guimaraes B xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Fafe 1.8 – 0.7 Guimaraes B expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fafe to win✗
62%
1.62
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Fafe or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Fafe ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fafe / FT Fafe✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.91
–
Form
Fafe – last 6
WDWLWL
16 Aug
@ São João Ver
3–1
W
9 Aug
vs Vianense
0–0
D
31 Jul
vs Maria da Fonte
2–0
W
15 Jul
@ Chaves
1–4
L
11 Jul
@ Vizela
3–0
W
28 Apr
vs São João Ver
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Guimaraes B – last 6
WLWLDW
15 Aug
vs Leça
2–0
W
7 Aug
@ Paredes
1–3
L
25 Jul
@ Chaves
3–2
W
3 May
vs Mafra
0–2
L
19 Apr
vs União Santarém
1–1
D
4 Apr
vs Academica
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fafe and Guimaraes B.
Our pick is Fafe or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Fafe vs Guimaraes B?
On our numbers Fafe have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Guimaraes B 15%.
How many goals will there be in Fafe vs Guimaraes B?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fafe vs Guimaraes B?
Our predicted score is Fafe 1–0 Guimaraes B, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Fafe vs Guimaraes B?
Fafe vs Guimaraes B (Liga 3) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
