Value bet: Welling United to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeatherhead to win ✓45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · fair 1.98
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.13
Leatherhead vs Welling United preview and prediction
The match
Welling United travel to face Leatherhead in the Non League Premier Isthmian on Tuesday 11 August (19:45 WAT). Leatherhead are 8th with 24 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Welling United sit 2nd on 37 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Leatherhead's last 4: WDWL Most recently they beat Ramsgate 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Welling United's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Whitehawk 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Leatherhead and 1.2 for Welling United. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leatherhead 45%, draw 19%, Welling United 36%.
Value angle: Welling United to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 52% chance at odds of 1.73. Predicted score: Leatherhead 2–1 Welling United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leatherhead45%fair 2.22 · @2.00
Draw19%fair 5.15 · @3.60
Welling United36%fair 2.81 · @3.00
2.68Expected goals
1.44Leatherhead xG
1.24Welling United xG
51%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Leatherhead 1.4 – 1.2 Welling United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leatherhead to win✓
45%
2.22
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leatherhead / FT Leatherhead✓
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.13
–
Form
Leatherhead – last 4
WDWL
8 Aug
@ Ramsgate
2–1
W
25 Jul
vs Ashford Town (Middlesex)
1–1
D
11 Jul
vs Dorking Wanderers
3–2
W
21 Feb
vs Hayes & Yeading United
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Welling United – last 6
WLWLWL
8 Aug
vs Whitehawk
2–0
W
1 Aug
@ Folkestone Invicta
0–2
L
14 Jul
vs Braintree
3–2
W
11 Jul
@ Maidstone Utd
1–4
L
14 Apr
vs Potters Bar Town
1–0
W
6 Apr
@ Brentwood Town
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leatherhead and Welling United.
What is the prediction for Leatherhead vs Welling United?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Leatherhead vs Welling United?
On our numbers Leatherhead have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Welling United 36%.
How many goals will there be in Leatherhead vs Welling United?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leatherhead vs Welling United?
Our predicted score is Leatherhead 2–1 Welling United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Leatherhead vs Welling United?
Leatherhead vs Welling United (Non League Premier Isthmian) kicks off on Tuesday 11 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
