Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
Wellington Phoenix or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Wellington Phoenix to win @ 1.75 – our chance 63% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultWellington Phoenix to win ✓63% · @1.75
Double chanceWellington Phoenix or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.62
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.44
Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners preview and prediction
The match
Central Coast Mariners travel to Hnry Stadium in the A League on Sunday 25 October (03:00 WAT) to face Wellington Phoenix. Wellington Phoenix are 1st with 10 points from 4 games (top of the table), while Central Coast Mariners sit 11th on 2 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Wellington Phoenix's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Melbourne Victory 2–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Central Coast Mariners's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with Newcastle Jets 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Wellington Phoenix arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.4 for Wellington Phoenix and 1.1 for Central Coast Mariners. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations.
Safer route: Wellington Phoenix or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Wellington Phoenix to win at 1.75 – 63% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Wellington Phoenix or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Wellington Phoenix 2–1 Central Coast Mariners. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Wellington Phoenix63%fair 1.58 · @1.75
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.60
Central Coast Mariners15%fair 6.74 · @4.00
3.50Expected goals
2.37Wellington Phoenix xG
1.13Central Coast Mariners xG
63%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–08%
1–18%
3–18%
1–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Wellington Phoenix 2.4 – 1.1 Central Coast Mariners expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Wellington Phoenix to win✓
63%
1.58
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Wellington Phoenix or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.58
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
Wellington Phoenix ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Wellington Phoenix / FT Wellington Phoenix✗
43%
2.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.44
–
Form
Wellington Phoenix – last 6
WLWLWW
18 Oct
vs Melbourne Victory
2–1
W
24 Apr
@ Macarthur
0–4
L
18 Apr
vs Western Sydney Wanderers
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Melbourne City
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ Melbourne Victory
1–0
W
21 Mar
@ Brisbane Roar
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Central Coast Mariners – last 6
DLLDLW
17 Oct
vs Newcastle Jets
2–2
D
12 Sep
@ Vanuatu United
0–1
L
9 Sep
@ Vanuatu United
2–3
L
22 Jul
@ Sydney United
1–1
D
25 Apr
@ Newcastle Jets
0–4
L
19 Apr
@ Auckland
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Wellington Phoenix and Central Coast Mariners.
What is the prediction for Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
Our pick is Wellington Phoenix or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
On our numbers Wellington Phoenix have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Central Coast Mariners 15%.
How many goals will there be in Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
Our predicted score is Wellington Phoenix 2–1 Central Coast Mariners, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners (A League) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Hnry Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
