Value bet: Paysandu to win @ 3.00 – our chance 35% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultOriental to win ✗41% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.00
Paysandu vs Oriental preview and prediction
The match
Paysandu host Oriental in the Segunda División on Monday 3 August, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT). Paysandu are 5th with 35 points from 25 games (in the top half), while Oriental sit 6th on 34 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Paysandu's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Colón 3–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Oriental's last 5: WDLDD Most recently they beat Sportivo Huracan 1–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Paysandu and 1.3 for Oriental. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Paysandu to win at 3.00 – 35% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Paysandu 1–1 Oriental. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paysandu35%fair 2.82 · @3.00
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.20
Oriental41%fair 2.47 · @2.25
2.44Expected goals
1.17Paysandu xG
1.27Oriental xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Paysandu 1.2 – 1.3 Oriental expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Oriental to win✗
41%
2.47
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Oriental / FT Oriental✗
22%
4.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.00
–
Form
Paysandu – last 6
WWWLLL
25 Jul
@ Colón
3–2
W
13 Jul
vs Fenix
1–0
W
4 Jul
@ Rentistas
2–1
W
27 Jun
vs Miramar
2–3
L
20 Jun
@ Tacuarembo
0–1
L
14 Jun
vs Plaza Colonia
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Oriental – last 6
WDLDDW
18 Jul
vs Sportivo Huracan
1–0
W
12 Jul
@ Uruguay Montevideo
1–1
D
5 Jul
vs CA River Plate
1–2
L
28 Jun
vs Colón
1–1
D
20 Jun
@ Fenix
2–2
D
14 Jun
vs Rentistas
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paysandu and Oriental.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Paysandu vs Oriental?
On our numbers Paysandu have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Oriental 41%.
How many goals will there be in Paysandu vs Oriental?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paysandu vs Oriental?
Our predicted score is Paysandu 1–1 Oriental, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Paysandu vs Oriental?
Paysandu vs Oriental (Segunda División) kicks off on Monday 3 August 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
