Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFenix to win ✗39% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.53
Cerrito vs Fenix preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División sees Cerrito take on Fenix on Sunday 2 August, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT). Cerrito are 8th with 34 points from 25 games (in the bottom half), while Fenix sit 11th on 31 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cerrito's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Rentistas 0–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Fenix's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Atenas 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Cerrito and 1.3 for Fenix. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 58%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cerrito 36%, draw 24%, Fenix 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.85 – 58% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Cerrito 1–1 Fenix. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerrito36%fair 2.75 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.10
Fenix39%fair 2.54 · @2.65
2.50Expected goals
1.22Cerrito xG
1.28Fenix xG
58%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Cerrito 1.2 – 1.3 Fenix expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fenix to win✗
39%
2.54
2.65
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fenix / FT Fenix✗
22%
4.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.53
–
Form
Cerrito – last 6
DWDWLL
18 Jul
@ Rentistas
0–0
D
12 Jul
vs Miramar
1–0
W
5 Jul
@ Tacuarembo
0–0
D
28 Jun
vs Plaza Colonia
1–0
W
21 Jun
@ La Luz
0–2
L
14 Jun
@ CA River Plate
4–6
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Fenix – last 6
WLWLDD
26 Jul
vs Atenas
1–0
W
13 Jul
@ Paysandu
0–1
L
5 Jul
vs Sportivo Huracan
2–0
W
27 Jun
@ Uruguay Montevideo
2–3
L
20 Jun
vs Oriental
2–2
D
13 Jun
@ Colón
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerrito and Fenix.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Cerrito vs Fenix?
On our numbers Cerrito have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fenix 39%.
How many goals will there be in Cerrito vs Fenix?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerrito vs Fenix?
Our predicted score is Cerrito 1–1 Fenix, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Cerrito vs Fenix?
Cerrito vs Fenix (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
