Challenge Cup · Scotland · Borough Briggs
Elgin City vs Aberdeen U21 prediction & analysis
Elgin City or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Elgin City to win @ 1.65 – our chance 67% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Elgin City 2.4 – 1.0 Aberdeen U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Elgin City are clear favourites at home with a 67% chance of winning, against 15% for Aberdeen U21.
Elgin City have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.7 per game. Aberdeen U21 have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded. Elgin City come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.4 goals (2.4 for Elgin City, 1.0 for Aberdeen U21). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 1–1 (8%).
Our pick is Elgin City or draw at a 85% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Elgin City to win at 1.65 is our value angle (67% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Elgin City to win ✗ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.65 ▲ |
| Double chance | Elgin City or draw ✗ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 85% | 1.17 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 66% | 1.51 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Half-time result | Elgin City ahead at half-time ✗ | 50% | 2.01 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Elgin City / FT Elgin City ✗ | 44% | 2.25 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.36 | – |
Form
Elgin City – last 6
| 10 Oct | @ Forfar Athletic | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Clyde | 6–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | @ Peterhead | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | vs Dundee II | 3–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Stranraer | 1–5 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Annan Athletic | 0–2 | L |
Aberdeen U21 – last 6
| 26 Sep | @ Cove Rangers | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Sep | @ Banks O' Dee | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Sep | @ Ross County | 4–3 | W |
| 25 Aug | @ Fraserburgh | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Aug | @ Forfar Athletic | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Jul | @ Keith | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Elgin City and Aberdeen U21.
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Ross County2
Forfar Athletic1
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Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Elgin City vs Aberdeen U21?
Our pick is Elgin City or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Elgin City vs Aberdeen U21?
On our numbers Elgin City have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Aberdeen U21 15%.
How many goals will there be in Elgin City vs Aberdeen U21?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
When is Elgin City vs Aberdeen U21?
Elgin City vs Aberdeen U21 (Challenge Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Borough Briggs.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.