Challenge Cup · Scotland · Dumbarton Football Stadium
Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.35 · Won ✓
Value bet: Dumbarton to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Dumbarton 2.9 – 1.8 Kilmarnock II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Dumbarton are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 21% for Kilmarnock II.
Dumbarton have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.3 per game. Kilmarnock II have 4 points from their last 3 (1W 1D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 2.3 conceded.
We expect around 4.7 goals (2.9 for Dumbarton, 1.8 for Kilmarnock II). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 84% likely and both teams score 73% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (7%), 3–1 (7%), 2–2 (6%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.35 is close to our fair price of 1.37. For a bigger price, Dumbarton to win at 1.85 is our value angle (62% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Dumbarton to win ✓ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.35 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 95% | 1.06 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.18 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.46 | – |
| Half-time result | Dumbarton ahead at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.06 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Dumbarton / FT Dumbarton ✗ | 41% | 2.42 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 7% | 14.31 | – |
Form
Dumbarton – last 6
| 19 Sep | vs Spartans | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Stranraer | 1–3 | L |
| 8 Sep | @ Cove Rangers | 1–6 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Elgin City | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Annan Athletic | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Aug | vs Celtic II | 2–2 | D |
Kilmarnock II – last 3
| 8 Sep | @ Cowdenbeath | 2–1 | W |
| 25 Aug | @ Cumbernauld Colts | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Aug | @ East Kilbride | 3–5 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dumbarton and Kilmarnock II.
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League hub
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East Kilbride3
Celtic II3
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Dundee United II0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II?
On our numbers Dumbarton have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Kilmarnock II 21%.
How many goals will there be in Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II?
We expect about 4.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 84% likely and both teams score 73% of the time on our projection.
When is Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II?
Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II (Challenge Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 22 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Dumbarton Football Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.