Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAEK Athens FC to win ✓71% · @1.36
Double chanceAEK Athens FC or draw ✓90% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.95
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 10.11
AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis preview and prediction
The match
AEK Athens FC host Aris Thessalonikis in the Super League 1 on Saturday 5 September, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Allwyn Arena. AEK Athens FC are 3rd with 20 points from 9 games (in the top four), while Aris Thessalonikis sit 5th on 19 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
AEK Athens FC's last 5: WDWWD Most recently they beat Nestos Chrisoupolis 2–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aris Thessalonikis's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat OFI 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Aris Thessalonikis arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.6 for AEK Athens FC and 0.9 for Aris Thessalonikis. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 59% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was AEK Athens FC to win – a 71% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: AEK Athens FC 2–0 Aris Thessalonikis. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AEK Athens FC71%fair 1.41 · @1.36
Draw19%fair 5.29 · @4.50
Aris Thessalonikis10%fair 9.78 · @7.50
3.50Expected goals
2.56AEK Athens FC xG
0.94Aris Thessalonikis xG
59%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–19%
3–08%
3–18%
1–08%
1–17%
From our goals model: AEK Athens FC 2.6 – 0.9 Aris Thessalonikis expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AEK Athens FC to win✓
71%
1.41
1.36
Double chance
AEK Athens FC or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.68
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
AEK Athens FC ahead at half-time✓
54%
1.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AEK Athens FC / FT AEK Athens FC✓
49%
2.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
10.11
–
Form
AEK Athens FC – last 6
WDWWDD
2 Sep
@ Nestos Chrisoupolis
2–0
W
30 Aug
@ Kifisia
1–1
D
26 Aug
vs Levski Sofia
4–0
W
22 Aug
vs Iraklis 1908
4–0
W
18 Aug
@ Levski Sofia
0–0
D
12 Aug
vs OFI
2–2
D
2.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Aris Thessalonikis – last 6
WWWLWW
30 Aug
vs OFI
2–1
W
22 Aug
@ Kalamata
3–2
W
17 Aug
@ Anagennisi Karditsas
2–0
W
12 Aug
@ Napoli
2–6
L
30 Jul
@ Monza
3–1
W
17 May
vs Levadiakos
3–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis.
What is the prediction for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our pick is AEK Athens FC to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
On our numbers AEK Athens FC have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Aris Thessalonikis 10%.
How many goals will there be in AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our predicted score is AEK Athens FC 2–0 Aris Thessalonikis, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis (Super League 1) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Allwyn Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
