Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis prediction & analysis
83%
Footrivo pick
Aris Thessalonikis or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.30Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 2.98 – our chance 56% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +68%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗56% · @2.98
Double chanceAris Thessalonikis or draw ✓83% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.60
Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis preview and prediction
The match
The Super League 1 sees Kalamata take on Aris Thessalonikis on Saturday 22 August, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT) at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium. Kalamata are 8th with 12 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Aris Thessalonikis sit 5th on 19 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Kalamata's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Panetolikos 4–2 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aris Thessalonikis's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Anagennisi Karditsas 2–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Kalamata and 1.2 for Aris Thessalonikis. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 54%.
Safer route: Aris Thessalonikis or draw (83%) at 1.30.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Draw at 2.98 – 56% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Aris Thessalonikis or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Kalamata 1–1 Aris Thessalonikis. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kalamata17%fair 5.80 · @3.35
Draw56%fair 1.77 · @2.98
Aris Thessalonikis26%fair 3.79 · @2.20
2.31Expected goals
1.06Kalamata xG
1.25Aris Thessalonikis xG
54%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Kalamata 1.1 – 1.2 Aris Thessalonikis expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
56%
1.77
2.98 ▲
Double chance
Aris Thessalonikis or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.30 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aris Thessalonikis / FT Aris Thessalonikis✗
23%
4.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.60
–
Form
Kalamata – last 6
WWWWWL
19 Aug
vs Panetolikos
4–2
W
10 Aug
@ Volos NFC
2–0
W
15 Mar
vs Olympiakos Piraeus II
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Marko
2–0
W
21 Feb
@ Olympiakos Piraeus II
3–0
W
15 Feb
vs Panionios
0–2
L
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Aris Thessalonikis – last 6
WLWWWW
17 Aug
@ Anagennisi Karditsas
2–0
W
12 Aug
@ Napoli
2–6
L
30 Jul
@ Monza
3–1
W
17 May
vs Levadiakos
3–0
W
13 May
@ Volos NFC
2–1
W
10 May
vs OFI
3–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kalamata and Aris Thessalonikis.
What is the prediction for Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our pick is Aris Thessalonikis or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis?
On our numbers Kalamata have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 56% and Aris Thessalonikis 26%.
How many goals will there be in Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our predicted score is Kalamata 1–1 Aris Thessalonikis, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis (Super League 1) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
