Value bet: CD Marathon to win @ 1.70 – our chance 67% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCD Marathon to win ✓67% · @1.70
Double chanceCD Marathon or draw ✓89% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓18% · fair 5.70
Atlético Choloma vs CD Marathon preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Nacional sees Atlético Choloma take on CD Marathon on Sunday 16 August, kicking off at 22:00 (WAT) at Estadio Ruben Deras. Atlético Choloma are 9th with 14 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while CD Marathon sit 3rd on 28 points (in the top four). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Atlético Choloma's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Atletico Independiente 1–2 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
CD Marathon's last 5: WDWDD Most recently they beat Antigua GFC 3–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 May 2026, finished CD Marathon 0–1 Atlético Choloma. Across their last 2 meetings Atlético Choloma have won 1, CD Marathon 0, with 1 draw and 0.5 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 0.5 for Atlético Choloma and 1.8 for CD Marathon. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atlético Choloma 11%, draw 22%, CD Marathon 67%.
Safer route: CD Marathon or draw (89%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.80.
Value angle: CD Marathon to win at 1.70 – 67% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Atlético Choloma 0–1 CD Marathon. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atlético Choloma11%fair 9.16 · @4.40
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.45
CD Marathon67%fair 1.50 · @1.70
2.30Expected goals
0.55Atlético Choloma xG
1.75CD Marathon xG
51%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–118%
0–215%
0–010%
1–110%
0–39%
1–28%
From our goals model: Atlético Choloma 0.5 – 1.8 CD Marathon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atlético Choloma vs CD Marathon?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Atlético Choloma vs CD Marathon?
On our numbers Atlético Choloma have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 22% and CD Marathon 67%.
How many goals will there be in Atlético Choloma vs CD Marathon?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Choloma vs CD Marathon?
Our predicted score is Atlético Choloma 0–1 CD Marathon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Atlético Choloma vs CD Marathon?
Atlético Choloma vs CD Marathon (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Ruben Deras.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
