Value bet: Olancho to win @ 1.95 – our chance 63% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultOlancho to win ✗63% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✗84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.67
Lobos Upnfm vs Olancho preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Nacional sees Lobos Upnfm take on Olancho on Sunday 9 August, kicking off at 00:15 (WAT) at Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse. Lobos Upnfm are 6th with 19 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Olancho sit 7th on 18 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lobos Upnfm's last 5: LWLLD Most recently they lost to CD Olimpia 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Olancho's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Estrella Roja 1–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Olancho arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 24 March 2026, finished Lobos Upnfm 2–1 Olancho.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.6 for Lobos Upnfm and 1.5 for Olancho. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 56% likely.
Value angle: Olancho to win at 1.95 – 63% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.36, above our fair price of 1.32, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lobos Upnfm 0–1 Olancho. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lobos Upnfm21%fair 4.77 · @3.30
Draw16%fair 6.19 · @3.45
Olancho63%fair 1.59 · @1.95
2.14Expected goals
0.64Lobos Upnfm xG
1.49Olancho xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–118%
0–213%
0–012%
1–111%
1–28%
1–08%
From our goals model: Lobos Upnfm 0.6 – 1.5 Olancho expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Lobos Upnfm vs Olancho?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Lobos Upnfm vs Olancho?
On our numbers Lobos Upnfm have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Olancho 63%.
How many goals will there be in Lobos Upnfm vs Olancho?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lobos Upnfm vs Olancho?
Our predicted score is Lobos Upnfm 0–1 Olancho, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Lobos Upnfm vs Olancho?
Lobos Upnfm vs Olancho (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 00:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
