US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
US Mondorf-les-bains or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: US Mondorf-les-bains to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUS Mondorf-les-bains to win ✓56% · @1.95
Double chanceUS Mondorf-les-bains or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.54
US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn preview and prediction
The match
Progres Niederkorn travel to Stade John Grun in the National Division on Sunday 30 August (15:00 WAT) to face US Mondorf-les-bains. US Mondorf-les-bains are 3rd with 27 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Progres Niederkorn sit 6th on 22 points (in the top half).
Form guide
US Mondorf-les-bains's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat AS Jeunesse Esch 3–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Progres Niederkorn's last 5: LWWWD Most recently they lost to UNA Strassen 0–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
US Mondorf-les-bains arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.9 for US Mondorf-les-bains and 1.0 for Progres Niederkorn. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: US Mondorf-les-bains 56%, draw 24%, Progres Niederkorn 20%.
Safer route: US Mondorf-les-bains or draw (80%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.67.
Value angle: US Mondorf-les-bains to win at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was US Mondorf-les-bains or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: US Mondorf-les-bains 1–1 Progres Niederkorn. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
US Mondorf-les-bains56%fair 1.78 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.45
Progres Niederkorn20%fair 5.07 · @3.30
2.87Expected goals
1.85US Mondorf-les-bains xG
1.02Progres Niederkorn xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–010%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: US Mondorf-les-bains 1.9 – 1.0 Progres Niederkorn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
US Mondorf-les-bains to win✓
56%
1.78
1.95 ▲
Double chance
US Mondorf-les-bains or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.35
Half-time result
US Mondorf-les-bains ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT US Mondorf-les-bains / FT US Mondorf-les-bains✗
36%
2.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
9.54
–
Form
US Mondorf-les-bains – last 6
WWWWWL
23 Aug
@ AS Jeunesse Esch
3–1
W
16 Aug
vs F91 Dudelange
1–0
W
9 Aug
@ Victoria Rosport
3–2
W
2 Aug
vs FC Differdange 03
3–2
W
16 Jul
@ Dinamo Tbilisi
1–0
W
9 Jul
vs Dinamo Tbilisi
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Progres Niederkorn – last 6
LWWWDL
22 Aug
vs UNA Strassen
0–1
L
16 Aug
@ Atert Bissen
4–0
W
9 Aug
@ Résidence Walferdange
1–0
W
1 Aug
vs AS Jeunesse Esch
2–1
W
25 Jul
vs Excelsior Virton
1–1
D
22 Jul
vs APM Metz
2–5
L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between US Mondorf-les-bains and Progres Niederkorn.
What is the prediction for US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn?
Our pick is US Mondorf-les-bains or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn?
On our numbers US Mondorf-les-bains have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Progres Niederkorn 20%.
How many goals will there be in US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn?
Our predicted score is US Mondorf-les-bains 1–1 Progres Niederkorn, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn?
US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn (National Division) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade John Grun.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
