Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.83 – our chance 62% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultRiga to win ✗65% · @1.29
Double chanceRiga or draw ✗83% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.83
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.57
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.64
Riga vs Vardar Skopje preview and prediction
The match
Vardar Skopje travel to Skonto in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Tuesday 28 July (18:00 WAT) to face Riga.
Form guide
Riga's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Vardar Skopje 3–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Vardar Skopje's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Bregalnica Štip 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Riga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 July 2026, finished Vardar Skopje 2–3 Riga.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 2.7 for Riga and 1.4 for Vardar Skopje. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 68% and both teams to score at 62%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.83 – 62% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.57, above our fair price of 1.47, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Riga 2–1 Vardar Skopje. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Riga65%fair 1.54 · @1.29
Draw18%fair 5.60 · @4.75
Vardar Skopje17%fair 5.77 · @9.40
4.04Expected goals
2.67Riga xG
1.37Vardar Skopje xG
62%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
3–18%
1–16%
2–06%
2–26%
3–06%
From our goals model: Riga 2.7 – 1.4 Vardar Skopje expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Riga vs Vardar Skopje?
On our numbers Riga have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Vardar Skopje 17%.
How many goals will there be in Riga vs Vardar Skopje?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Riga vs Vardar Skopje?
Our predicted score is Riga 2–1 Vardar Skopje, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Riga vs Vardar Skopje?
Riga vs Vardar Skopje (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Tuesday 28 July 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Skonto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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