Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.45Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.45 – our chance 56% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +94%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗56% · @3.45
Double chanceRiga or draw ✓79% · @1.45
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗12% · fair 8.63
Vardar Skopje vs Riga preview and prediction
The match
Vardar Skopje host Riga in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Wednesday 22 July, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Toše Proeski Arena.
Form guide
Vardar Skopje's last 5: WLWDD Most recently they beat KuPS 2–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Riga's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Tukums 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Riga arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.4 for Vardar Skopje and 1.5 for Riga. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 63%.
Value angle: Draw at 3.45 – 56% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Riga or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.45, above our fair price of 1.26, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Vardar Skopje 1–1 Riga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vardar Skopje21%fair 4.78 · @2.64
Draw56%fair 1.78 · @3.45
Riga23%fair 4.35 · @2.38
2.89Expected goals
1.42Vardar Skopje xG
1.47Riga xG
63%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–08%
2–26%
From our goals model: Vardar Skopje 1.4 – 1.5 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
56%
1.78
3.45 ▲
Double chance
Riga or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.45 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Riga / FT Riga✓
23%
4.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
12%
8.63
–
Form
Vardar Skopje – last 6
WLWDDW
14 Jul
@ KuPS
2–0
W
7 Jul
vs KuPS
0–2
L
30 Jun
@ Virtus
3–2
W
27 Jun
@ La Fiorita
1–1
D
8 Apr
@ Pelister
0–0
D
9 Mar
@ Sileks
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Riga – last 6
WWWLWW
18 Jul
vs Tukums
3–1
W
14 Jul
vs Ararat-Armenia
3–2
W
10 Jul
@ Leevon PPK
3–2
W
7 Jul
@ Ararat-Armenia
0–2
L
3 Jul
vs FS Jelgava
3–0
W
29 Jun
@ Auda
2–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vardar Skopje and Riga.
Our pick is Riga or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Vardar Skopje vs Riga?
On our numbers Vardar Skopje have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 56% and Riga 23%.
How many goals will there be in Vardar Skopje vs Riga?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vardar Skopje vs Riga?
Our predicted score is Vardar Skopje 1–1 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Vardar Skopje vs Riga?
Vardar Skopje vs Riga (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Wednesday 22 July 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Toše Proeski Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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