Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
1
Value bet: Valeriodoce to win @ 1.90 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultValeriodoce to win ✗58% · @1.90
Double chanceValeriodoce or draw ✗80% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · fair 1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.64
Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova preview and prediction
The match
The Mineiro 2 sees Valeriodoce take on Villa Nova on Sunday 26 July, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Israel Pinheiro - VEC.
Form guide
Valeriodoce's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Villa Nova 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Villa Nova's last 5: DLDLW Most recently they drew with Valeriodoce 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Valeriodoce arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 18 July 2026, finished Villa Nova 1–1 Valeriodoce. Across their last 2 meetings Valeriodoce have won 1, Villa Nova 0, with 1 draw and 1.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.4 for Valeriodoce and 0.7 for Villa Nova. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Valeriodoce 58%, draw 22%, Villa Nova 20%.
Safer route: Valeriodoce or draw (80%) at 1.17.
Value angle: Valeriodoce to win at 1.90 – 58% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Valeriodoce 1–0 Villa Nova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Valeriodoce58%fair 1.74 · @1.90
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @2.90
Villa Nova20%fair 4.94 · @4.00
2.07Expected goals
1.41Valeriodoce xG
0.66Villa Nova xG
42%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
0–013%
2–012%
1–112%
0–18%
2–18%
From our goals model: Valeriodoce 1.4 – 0.7 Villa Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova?
On our numbers Valeriodoce have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Villa Nova 20%.
How many goals will there be in Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova?
Our predicted score is Valeriodoce 1–0 Villa Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova?
Valeriodoce vs Villa Nova (Mineiro 2) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Israel Pinheiro - VEC.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mineiro 2 · Brazil · Estadio Israel Pinheiro - VEC
