Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
2
Value bet: Valeriodoce to win @ 2.88 – our chance 40% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultValeriodoce to win ✗40% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗57% · fair 1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.29
Villa Nova vs Valeriodoce preview and prediction
The match
Valeriodoce travel to Estadio Municipal Castor Cifuentes in the Mineiro 2 on Saturday 18 July (20:00 WAT) to face Villa Nova.
Form guide
Villa Nova's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Valeriodoce 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Valeriodoce's last 5: WDWWD Most recently they beat Villa Nova 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Valeriodoce arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 July 2026, finished Valeriodoce 1–0 Villa Nova.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Villa Nova and 1.1 for Valeriodoce. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Villa Nova 34%, draw 26%, Valeriodoce 40%.
Value angle: Valeriodoce to win at 2.88 – 40% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Villa Nova 0–1 Valeriodoce. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Villa Nova34%fair 2.92 · @2.40
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @2.80
Valeriodoce40%fair 2.51 · @2.88
2.08Expected goals
0.98Villa Nova xG
1.09Valeriodoce xG
43%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–013%
1–012%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Villa Nova 1.0 – 1.1 Valeriodoce expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Villa Nova vs Valeriodoce?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Villa Nova vs Valeriodoce?
On our numbers Villa Nova have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Valeriodoce 40%.
How many goals will there be in Villa Nova vs Valeriodoce?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Villa Nova vs Valeriodoce?
Our predicted score is Villa Nova 0–1 Valeriodoce, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Villa Nova vs Valeriodoce?
Villa Nova vs Valeriodoce (Mineiro 2) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Castor Cifuentes.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mineiro 2 · Brazil · Estadio Municipal Castor Cifuentes
Mamoré2
Uberaba1