Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Búzios to win @ 1.83 – our chance 63% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBúzios to win ✓63% · @1.83
Double chanceBúzios or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.76
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.84
Búzios vs Barra Mansa preview and prediction
The match
Búzios host Barra Mansa in the Carioca C on Sunday 19 July, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Búzios's last 4: DWWL Most recently they drew with EC Resende 1–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Barra Mansa's last 3: DDD Most recently they drew with Uni Souza 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Búzios arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Búzios and 0.6 for Barra Mansa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 43%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Búzios 63%, draw 23%, Barra Mansa 14%.
Safer route: Búzios or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Búzios to win at 1.83 – 63% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Búzios or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Búzios 1–0 Barra Mansa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Búzios63%fair 1.58 · @1.83
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.20
Barra Mansa14%fair 7.21 · @3.80
2.27Expected goals
1.66Búzios xG
0.61Barra Mansa xG
43%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Búzios 1.7 – 0.6 Barra Mansa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Búzios to win✓
63%
1.58
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Búzios or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Búzios / FT Búzios✓
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.84
–
Form
Búzios – last 4
DWWL
12 Jul
vs EC Resende
1–1
D
6 Jul
@ EC Resende
1–0
W
28 Jun
@ Barcelona RJ
7–0
W
8 Jun
vs Cardoso Moreira
0–2
L
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Barra Mansa – last 3
DDD
12 Jul
vs Uni Souza
0–0
D
7 Jul
@ Uni Souza
0–0
D
3 Jul
vs Cardoso Moreira
2–2
D
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Búzios and Barra Mansa.
Our pick is Búzios or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Búzios vs Barra Mansa?
On our numbers Búzios have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Barra Mansa 14%.
How many goals will there be in Búzios vs Barra Mansa?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Búzios vs Barra Mansa?
Our predicted score is Búzios 1–0 Barra Mansa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Búzios vs Barra Mansa?
Búzios vs Barra Mansa (Carioca C) kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Carioca C · Brazil
