Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue preview and prediction
The match
The Regionalliga Nordost sees Greifswalder FC take on Erzgebirge Aue on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT). Greifswalder FC are 8th with 26 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Erzgebirge Aue sit 6th on 30 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Greifswalder FC's last 5: LWWDD Most recently they lost to BFC Dynamo 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Erzgebirge Aue's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to BSG Chemie Leipzig 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 1.7 for Greifswalder FC and 1.9 for Erzgebirge Aue. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score in 68% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Greifswalder FC 38%, draw 19%, Erzgebirge Aue 43%.
Both teams to score: yes (68%) at 1.26.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Greifswalder FC 1–2 Erzgebirge Aue. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Greifswalder FC38%fair 2.66 · @2.44
Draw19%fair 5.15 · @4.17
Erzgebirge Aue43%fair 2.33 · @2.11
3.61Expected goals
1.74Greifswalder FC xG
1.87Erzgebirge Aue xG
68%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
1–35%
0–15%
From our goals model: Greifswalder FC 1.7 – 1.9 Erzgebirge Aue expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Erzgebirge Aue to win✗
43%
2.33
2.11
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
68%
1.47
1.26
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.25
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.72
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
35%
2.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Erzgebirge Aue / FT Erzgebirge Aue✗
25%
3.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.16
–
Form
Greifswalder FC – last 6
LWWDDW
25 Sep
@ BFC Dynamo
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Luckenwalde
3–1
W
16 Sep
@ RSV Eintracht
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs Lokomotive Leipzig
3–3
D
30 Aug
@ Tasmania Berlin
2–2
D
26 Aug
vs SV Babelsberg 03
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Erzgebirge Aue – last 6
LDWWWD
27 Sep
vs BSG Chemie Leipzig
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
2–2
D
16 Sep
@ Magdeburg II
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs Luckenwalde
2–1
W
30 Aug
@ Lokomotive Leipzig
2–1
W
26 Aug
vs Hertha BSC II
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Greifswalder FC and Erzgebirge Aue.
What is the prediction for Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?
On our numbers Greifswalder FC have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Erzgebirge Aue 43%.
How many goals will there be in Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?
Our predicted score is Greifswalder FC 1–2 Erzgebirge Aue, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?
Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue (Regionalliga Nordost) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
