St. Pauli II vs Weiche Flensburg prediction & analysis
88%
Footrivo pick
Weiche Flensburg or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Weiche Flensburg to win @ 1.60 – our chance 68% vs 63% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultWeiche Flensburg to win ✗68% · @1.60
Double chanceWeiche Flensburg or draw ✗88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗67% · @1.40
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.79
St. Pauli II vs Weiche Flensburg preview and prediction
The match
The Regionalliga Nord sees St. Pauli II take on Weiche Flensburg on Sunday 25 October, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT). St. Pauli II are 17th with 14 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Weiche Flensburg sit 2nd on 35 points (in the top four). A gap of 21 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
St. Pauli II's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to VfB Lübeck 1–4 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Weiche Flensburg's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat SV DrochtersenAssel 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Weiche Flensburg arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.1 goals: 1.2 for St. Pauli II and 2.8 for Weiche Flensburg. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 77% and both teams to score at 67%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: St. Pauli II 12%, draw 20%, Weiche Flensburg 68%.
Safer route: Weiche Flensburg or draw (88%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (67%) at 1.40.
Value angle: Weiche Flensburg to win at 1.60 – 68% on our numbers against 63% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Weiche Flensburg or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: St. Pauli II 1–2 Weiche Flensburg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
St. Pauli II12%fair 8.44 · @4.20
Draw20%fair 4.92 · @4.00
Weiche Flensburg68%fair 1.47 · @1.60
4.07Expected goals
1.24St. Pauli II xG
2.83Weiche Flensburg xG
67%Both score
77%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–28%
1–38%
0–27%
0–36%
1–16%
1–46%
From our goals model: St. Pauli II 1.2 – 2.8 Weiche Flensburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Weiche Flensburg to win✗
68%
1.47
1.60 ▲
Double chance
Weiche Flensburg or draw✗
88%
1.13
1.20 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
67%
1.50
1.40
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.09
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Weiche Flensburg ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Weiche Flensburg / FT Weiche Flensburg✗
48%
2.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.79
–
Form
St. Pauli II – last 6
LLLLWW
17 Oct
@ VfB Lübeck
1–4
L
11 Oct
vs HSC Hannover
3–4
L
26 Sep
vs Kickers Emden
0–2
L
19 Sep
@ SV DrochtersenAssel
0–1
L
16 Sep
@ Hamburger SV II
3–0
W
13 Sep
vs Eintracht Norderstedt
5–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Weiche Flensburg – last 6
WWWWLL
16 Oct
vs SV DrochtersenAssel
3–0
W
11 Oct
@ Todesfelde
4–0
W
3 Oct
vs VfB Oldenburg
3–2
W
27 Sep
@ Bremer SV
3–0
W
19 Sep
vs Phönix Lübeck
1–2
L
16 Sep
@ Schöningen
1–2
L
2.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between St. Pauli II and Weiche Flensburg.
What is the prediction for St. Pauli II vs Weiche Flensburg?
Our pick is Weiche Flensburg or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win St. Pauli II vs Weiche Flensburg?
On our numbers St. Pauli II have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Weiche Flensburg 68%.
How many goals will there be in St. Pauli II vs Weiche Flensburg?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 77% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for St. Pauli II vs Weiche Flensburg?
Our predicted score is St. Pauli II 1–2 Weiche Flensburg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is St. Pauli II vs Weiche Flensburg?
St. Pauli II vs Weiche Flensburg (Regionalliga Nord) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
