Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMatagalpa to win ✗64% · @1.60
Double chanceMatagalpa or draw ✗85% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.52
Matagalpa vs Rancho Santana preview and prediction
The match
Matagalpa host Rancho Santana in the Primera Division on Sunday 30 August, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT). Matagalpa are 10th with 10 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Rancho Santana sit 9th on 10 points (in the bottom three). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Matagalpa's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Jalapa 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Rancho Santana's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to San Marcos 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Matagalpa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Matagalpa and 0.8 for Rancho Santana. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 61%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Matagalpa 1–0 Rancho Santana. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Matagalpa64%fair 1.57 · @1.60
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @3.80
Rancho Santana15%fair 6.79 · @4.75
2.83Expected goals
1.99Matagalpa xG
0.84Rancho Santana xG
61%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Matagalpa 2.0 – 0.8 Rancho Santana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Matagalpa to win✗
64%
1.57
1.60
Double chance
Matagalpa or draw✗
85%
1.17
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.53
Half-time result
Matagalpa ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Matagalpa / FT Matagalpa✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.52
–
Form
Matagalpa – last 6
WWLLLL
23 Aug
@ Jalapa
1–0
W
16 Aug
vs San Marcos
1–0
W
10 Aug
vs Managua
0–3
L
3 Aug
@ Walter Ferretti
1–4
L
26 Jul
@ Real Estelí
0–2
L
19 Jul
vs H&H Export
0–3
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Rancho Santana – last 6
LLLLLL
23 Aug
vs San Marcos
1–2
L
16 Aug
vs Walter Ferretti
1–3
L
9 Aug
@ Diriangén
1–2
L
2 Aug
vs H&H Export
0–1
L
28 Jul
@ UNAN Managua
0–2
L
19 Jul
@ Managua
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Matagalpa and Rancho Santana.
What is the prediction for Matagalpa vs Rancho Santana?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Matagalpa vs Rancho Santana?
On our numbers Matagalpa have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Rancho Santana 15%.
How many goals will there be in Matagalpa vs Rancho Santana?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Matagalpa vs Rancho Santana?
Our predicted score is Matagalpa 1–0 Rancho Santana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Matagalpa vs Rancho Santana?
Matagalpa vs Rancho Santana (Primera Division) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
