Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Jalapa to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultJalapa to win ✗60% · @1.95
Double chanceJalapa or draw ✗85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.03
Jalapa vs Matagalpa preview and prediction
The match
Matagalpa travel to face Jalapa in the Primera Division on Sunday 23 August (22:00 WAT). Jalapa are 8th with 15 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Matagalpa sit 10th on 10 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Jalapa's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to UNAN Managua 1–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Matagalpa's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat San Marcos 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Jalapa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 July 2026, finished Jalapa 3–2 Matagalpa. Across their last 2 meetings Jalapa have won 1, Matagalpa 1, with 0 draws and 4.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Jalapa and 0.8 for Matagalpa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Jalapa 60%, draw 25%, Matagalpa 15%.
Safer route: Jalapa or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Jalapa to win at 1.95 – 60% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Jalapa or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Jalapa 1–0 Matagalpa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Jalapa60%fair 1.67 · @1.95
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @3.30
Matagalpa15%fair 6.57 · @3.60
2.51Expected goals
1.74Jalapa xG
0.76Matagalpa xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Jalapa 1.7 – 0.8 Matagalpa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Jalapa or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Jalapa vs Matagalpa?
On our numbers Jalapa have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Matagalpa 15%.
How many goals will there be in Jalapa vs Matagalpa?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Jalapa vs Matagalpa?
Our predicted score is Jalapa 1–0 Matagalpa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Jalapa vs Matagalpa?
Jalapa vs Matagalpa (Primera Division) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
