Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.90 – our chance 60% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultArgentina to win ✓38% · @2.94
Double chanceEither team to win ✓71% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓72% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 11.02
England vs Argentina preview and prediction
The match
England host Argentina in the World Cup on Wednesday 15 July, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Form guide
England's last 5: DWWWD Most recently they drew with Norway 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Argentina's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Switzerland 1–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.3 for England and 1.6 for Argentina. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: England 33%, draw 29%, Argentina 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.90 – 60% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.44, above our fair price of 1.39, so there is value in it. Predicted score: England 1–1 Argentina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
England33%fair 3.03 · @2.66
Draw29%fair 3.49 · @2.82
Argentina38%fair 2.60 · @2.94
2.91Expected goals
1.33England xG
1.59Argentina xG
60%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: England 1.3 – 1.6 Argentina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Argentina to win✓
38%
2.60
2.94 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
71%
1.40
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.90 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Argentina / FT Argentina✗
26%
3.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
11.02
–
Form
England – last 6
DWWWDW
11 Jul
@ Norway
1–1
D
6 Jul
@ Mexico
3–2
W
1 Jul
vs Congo DR
2–1
W
27 Jun
@ Panama
2–0
W
23 Jun
vs Ghana
0–0
D
17 Jun
vs Croatia
4–2
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Argentina – last 6
DWDWWW
12 Jul
vs Switzerland
1–1
D
7 Jul
vs Egypt
3–2
W
3 Jul
vs Cape Verde Islands
1–1
D
28 Jun
@ Jordan
3–1
W
22 Jun
vs Austria
2–0
W
17 Jun
vs Algeria
3–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between England and Argentina.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win England vs Argentina?
On our numbers England have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Argentina 38%.
How many goals will there be in England vs Argentina?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for England vs Argentina?
Our predicted score is England 1–1 Argentina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is England vs Argentina?
England vs Argentina (World Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 15 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
