Value bet: Mardin 1969 to win @ 3.70 – our chance 34% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEsenler Erokspor to win ✓44% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.93
Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 preview and prediction
The match
The 1. Lig sees Esenler Erokspor take on Mardin 1969 on Monday 19 October, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT) at Esenler Stadium. Esenler Erokspor are 10th with 18 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Mardin 1969 sit 4th on 25 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Esenler Erokspor's last 5: DWLDL Most recently they drew with Manisa F.K. 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Mardin 1969's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat Fatih Karagümrük 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Mardin 1969 arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for Esenler Erokspor and 0.8 for Mardin 1969. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Esenler Erokspor 44%, draw 22%, Mardin 1969 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Mardin 1969 to win at 3.70 – 34% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: Esenler Erokspor 1–1 Mardin 1969. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Esenler Erokspor44%fair 2.27 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.10
Mardin 196934%fair 2.98 · @3.70
1.75Expected goals
0.97Esenler Erokspor xG
0.78Mardin 1969 xG
51%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–017%
1–017%
0–114%
1–113%
2–08%
2–16%
From our goals model: Esenler Erokspor 1.0 – 0.8 Mardin 1969 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Esenler Erokspor to win✓
44%
2.27
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
53%
1.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
25%
3.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.93
–
Form
Esenler Erokspor – last 6
DWLDLD
15 Oct
@ Manisa F.K.
1–1
D
10 Oct
@ İstanbulspor
1–0
W
19 Sep
vs Fatih Karagümrük
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ Bursaspor
2–2
D
7 Sep
vs Kayserispor
0–3
L
3 Sep
@ Bodrum FK
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mardin 1969 – last 6
WWLLWD
15 Oct
vs Fatih Karagümrük
1–0
W
11 Oct
@ Bursaspor
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs Kayserispor
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Iğdır FK
0–1
L
7 Sep
vs Bodrum FK
1–0
W
2 Sep
@ Sivasspor
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Esenler Erokspor and Mardin 1969.
What is the prediction for Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969?
On our numbers Esenler Erokspor have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Mardin 1969 34%.
How many goals will there be in Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969?
Our predicted score is Esenler Erokspor 1–1 Mardin 1969, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969?
Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 (1. Lig) kicks off on Monday 19 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Esenler Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
