Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Muğlaspor to win @ 1.85 – our chance 64% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMuğlaspor to win ✗64% · @1.85
Double chanceMuğlaspor or draw ✓85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.27
Muğlaspor vs Vanspor FK preview and prediction
The match
Muğlaspor host Vanspor FK in the 1. Lig on Sunday 6 September, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT). Muğlaspor are 11th with 18 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Vanspor FK sit 14th on 16 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Muğlaspor's last 5: WWDDL Most recently they beat Ümraniyespor 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vanspor FK's last 5: LDWLL Most recently they lost to Batman Petrolspor 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Muğlaspor arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for Muğlaspor and 0.5 for Vanspor FK. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Muğlaspor 64%, draw 22%, Vanspor FK 15%.
Safer route: Muğlaspor or draw (85%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Muğlaspor to win at 1.85 – 64% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Muğlaspor or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Muğlaspor 1–0 Vanspor FK. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Muğlaspor64%fair 1.57 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.25
Vanspor FK15%fair 6.88 · @4.20
2.10Expected goals
1.55Muğlaspor xG
0.55Vanspor FK xG
45%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–015%
0–012%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Muğlaspor 1.6 – 0.5 Vanspor FK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Muğlaspor to win✗
64%
1.57
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Muğlaspor or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Muğlaspor / FT Muğlaspor✗
38%
2.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.27
–
Form
Muğlaspor – last 6
WWDDLD
1 Sep
@ Ümraniyespor
1–0
W
28 Aug
vs Boluspor
2–0
W
22 Aug
@ Bodrum FK
0–0
D
16 Aug
vs Bandırmaspor
0–0
D
9 Aug
@ Sarıyer
0–2
L
4 May
vs Şanlıurfaspor
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Vanspor FK – last 6
LDWLLL
2 Sep
vs Batman Petrolspor
0–2
L
29 Aug
@ Mardin 1969
1–1
D
23 Aug
vs İstanbulspor
3–2
W
15 Aug
@ Manisa F.K.
1–4
L
9 Aug
vs Kayserispor
0–2
L
1 May
@ Hatayspor
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Muğlaspor and Vanspor FK.
What is the prediction for Muğlaspor vs Vanspor FK?
Our pick is Muğlaspor or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Muğlaspor vs Vanspor FK?
On our numbers Muğlaspor have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Vanspor FK 15%.
How many goals will there be in Muğlaspor vs Vanspor FK?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Muğlaspor vs Vanspor FK?
Our predicted score is Muğlaspor 1–0 Vanspor FK, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Muğlaspor vs Vanspor FK?
Muğlaspor vs Vanspor FK (1. Lig) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
