Value bet: Esenler Erokspor to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultEsenler Erokspor to win ✗62% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✗86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗19% · fair 5.34
Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor preview and prediction
The match
Ümraniyespor host Esenler Erokspor in the 1. Lig on Saturday 22 August, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT). Ümraniyespor are 12th with 17 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Esenler Erokspor sit 10th on 18 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Ümraniyespor's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to Fatih Karagümrük 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Esenler Erokspor's last 5: DDLLW Most recently they drew with Sarıyer 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.6 for Ümraniyespor and 1.4 for Esenler Erokspor. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 58% likely.
Value angle: Esenler Erokspor to win at 1.95 – 62% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.35, above our fair price of 1.29, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ümraniyespor 0–1 Esenler Erokspor. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ümraniyespor23%fair 4.30 · @3.35
Draw14%fair 6.92 · @3.40
Esenler Erokspor62%fair 1.61 · @1.95
2.00Expected goals
0.62Ümraniyespor xG
1.38Esenler Erokspor xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–119%
0–014%
0–213%
1–112%
1–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Ümraniyespor 0.6 – 1.4 Esenler Erokspor expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Esenler Erokspor to win✗
62%
1.61
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
86%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.93 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Esenler Erokspor / FT Esenler Erokspor✗
33%
3.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
19%
5.34
–
Form
Ümraniyespor – last 6
LDLLDW
15 Aug
@ Fatih Karagümrük
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Mardin 1969
0–0
D
17 Jul
vs Galatasaray
1–5
L
19 Apr
vs Vanspor FK
1–2
L
13 Apr
@ Amed
2–2
D
8 Apr
vs Sakaryaspor
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Esenler Erokspor – last 6
DDLLWW
14 Aug
vs Sarıyer
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Sivasspor
0–0
D
24 May
vs Çorum FK
0–2
L
26 Apr
@ Sarıyer
0–1
L
19 Apr
vs Keçiörengücü
1–0
W
13 Apr
@ Sakaryaspor
2–1
W
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ümraniyespor and Esenler Erokspor.
What is the prediction for Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor?
On our numbers Ümraniyespor have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Esenler Erokspor 62%.
How many goals will there be in Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor?
Our predicted score is Ümraniyespor 0–1 Esenler Erokspor, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor?
Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor (1. Lig) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
