Value bet: Spain to win @ 3.05 – our chance 38% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSpain to win ✓38% · @3.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.15
France vs Spain preview and prediction
The match
Spain travel to Dallas Stadium in the World Cup on Tuesday 14 July (20:00 WAT) to face France.
Form guide
France's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Morocco 2–0 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Spain's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Belgium 2–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for France and 1.3 for Spain. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: France 37%, draw 25%, Spain 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Spain to win at 3.05 – 38% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: France 1–1 Spain. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
France37%fair 2.67 · @2.38
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.10
Spain38%fair 2.64 · @3.05
2.57Expected goals
1.28France xG
1.29Spain xG
58%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: France 1.3 – 1.3 Spain expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spain to win✓
38%
2.64
3.05 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.71
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spain / FT Spain✓
21%
4.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.15
–
Form
France – last 6
WWWWWW
9 Jul
vs Morocco
2–0
W
4 Jul
@ Paraguay
1–0
W
30 Jun
vs Sweden
3–0
W
26 Jun
@ Norway
4–1
W
22 Jun
vs Iraq
3–0
W
16 Jun
vs Senegal
3–1
W
2.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Spain – last 6
WWWWWD
10 Jul
vs Belgium
2–1
W
6 Jul
@ Portugal
1–0
W
2 Jul
vs Austria
3–0
W
27 Jun
@ Uruguay
1–0
W
21 Jun
vs Saudi Arabia
4–0
W
15 Jun
vs Cape Verde Islands
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between France and Spain.
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for France vs Spain?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win France vs Spain?
On our numbers France have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Spain 38%.
How many goals will there be in France vs Spain?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for France vs Spain?
Our predicted score is France 1–1 Spain, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is France vs Spain?
France vs Spain (World Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 14 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Dallas Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
