Süper Lig · Turkey · Basaksehir Fatih Terim StadiumBaşakşehir vs Kasımpaşa prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.40 · bookmaker 1.42 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Başakşehir 1.7 – 0.7 Kasımpaşa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Başakşehir are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 16% for Kasımpaşa.
Başakşehir have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.0 per game. Kasımpaşa have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.7 for Başakşehir, 0.7 for Kasımpaşa). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Başakşehir have won 1, Kasımpaşa have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 72% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.42 is close to our fair price of 1.40.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Başakşehir to win ✗ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.67 |
| Double chance | Başakşehir or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.22 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 50% | 1.99 | 2.10 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.40 | 1.42 |
| Half-time result | Başakşehir ahead at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.31 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Başakşehir / FT Başakşehir ✗ | 39% | 2.59 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.66 | – |
Form
Başakşehir – last 6
| 23 Aug | @ Trabzonspor | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | vs Kocaelispor | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Jul | @ Inter Turku | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Jul | vs Inter Turku | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Jul | @ Puskas Academy | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Jul | @ Red Bull Salzburg | 2–1 | W |
Kasımpaşa – last 6
| 22 Aug | @ Çorum FK | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | vs Trabzonspor | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | vs Samsunspor | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | vs Hull City | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Jul | vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 3–0 | W |
| 18 Jul | vs Batman Petrolspor | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 24 Apr 2026 | Başakşehir v Kasımpaşa | 4–0 |
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 11 | +12 | 28 |
| 2 |  Trabzonspor | 11 | +18 | 25 |
| 3 |  Amed | 11 | +13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 11 | +11 | 22 |
| 5 |  Kasımpaşa | 11 | +6 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fenerbahçe | 11 | +19 | 19 |
| 7 |  Kocaelispor | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 8 |  Başakşehir | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Çorum FK | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 |  Göztepe | 11 | +3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Rizespor | 11 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 |  Erzurumspor FK | 11 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 |  Alanyaspor | 11 | -9 | 12 |
| 14 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 11 | -9 | 11 |
| 15 |  Konyaspor | 11 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 |  Gaziantep FK | 11 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Samsunspor | 11 | -15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Eyüpspor | 11 | -27 | 3 |
More Süper Lig predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
On our numbers Başakşehir have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Kasımpaşa 16%.
How many goals will there be in Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.