Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Fortuna Düsseldorf to win @ 1.73 – our chance 65% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFortuna Düsseldorf to win ✗65% · @1.73
Double chanceFortuna Düsseldorf or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.09
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl preview and prediction
The match
Verl travel to Merkur Spiel-Arena in the 3. Liga on Sunday 11 October (18:30 WAT) to face Fortuna Düsseldorf. Fortuna Düsseldorf are 13th with 16 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Verl sit 17th on 12 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to Alemannia Aachen 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Verl's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Hannover 96 0–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 0.7 for Verl. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 58%.
Safer route: Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Fortuna Düsseldorf to win at 1.73 – 65% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–0 Verl. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fortuna Düsseldorf65%fair 1.54 · @1.73
Draw20%fair 5.06 · @3.70
Verl15%fair 6.58 · @3.80
2.57Expected goals
1.84Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
0.73Verl xG
58%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.8 – 0.7 Verl expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fortuna Düsseldorf to win✗
65%
1.54
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fortuna Düsseldorf / FT Fortuna Düsseldorf✗
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.09
–
Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf – last 6
LWWDWL
19 Sep
@ Alemannia Aachen
0–1
L
15 Sep
@ SSV Jahn Regensburg
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs MSV Duisburg
2–1
W
6 Sep
@ Fortuna Köln
0–0
D
28 Aug
vs Stuttgart II
1–0
W
23 Aug
vs SC Freiburg
1–5
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Verl – last 6
LWDWWL
3 Oct
@ Hannover 96
0–2
L
18 Sep
vs Würzburger Kickers
2–1
W
15 Sep
@ SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs SV Meppen
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ Waldhof Mannheim
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Fortuna Köln
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Verl.
What is the prediction for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl?
Our pick is Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl?
On our numbers Fortuna Düsseldorf have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Verl 15%.
How many goals will there be in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl?
Our predicted score is Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–0 Verl, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Verl (3. Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
