Value bet: MSV Duisburg to win @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMSV Duisburg to win ✓58% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓69% · @1.50
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓8% · fair 12.87
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg preview and prediction
The match
The 3. Liga sees SSV Jahn Regensburg take on MSV Duisburg on Saturday 5 September, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT) at Jahnstadion Regensburg. SSV Jahn Regensburg are 16th with 13 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while MSV Duisburg sit 2nd on 29 points (in the top four). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to Hoffenheim II 1–5 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded.
MSV Duisburg's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Würzburger Kickers 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.3 goals: 1.7 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 2.7 for MSV Duisburg. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 81% and both teams to score at 69%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: MSV Duisburg to win at 1.85 – 58% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 69% chance at odds of 1.50, above our fair price of 1.45, so there is value in it. Predicted score: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1–2 MSV Duisburg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
SSV Jahn Regensburg22%fair 4.45 · @3.40
Draw20%fair 4.99 · @3.60
MSV Duisburg58%fair 1.74 · @1.85
4.33Expected goals
1.68SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
2.65MSV Duisburg xG
69%Both score
81%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–28%
1–37%
2–27%
1–16%
2–36%
2–15%
From our goals model: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.7 – 2.7 MSV Duisburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
MSV Duisburg to win✓
58%
1.74
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
69%
1.45
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
MSV Duisburg ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT MSV Duisburg / FT MSV Duisburg✗
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
8%
12.87
–
Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg – last 6
LLWWWL
29 Aug
@ Hoffenheim II
1–5
L
16 Aug
vs FC Saarbrücken
0–1
L
8 Aug
@ FC Viktoria Köln
5–2
W
1 Aug
vs SSV Ulm 1846
1–0
W
25 Jul
@ Stuttgarter Kickers
2–1
W
15 Jul
vs Vilzing
2–3
L
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
MSV Duisburg – last 6
WLWWDD
29 Aug
vs Würzburger Kickers
3–0
W
22 Aug
vs SV Elversberg
1–3
L
15 Aug
@ Verl
4–2
W
8 Aug
vs SV Meppen
3–0
W
1 Aug
@ Sparta Rotterdam
0–0
D
25 Jul
@ Arminia Bielefeld
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and MSV Duisburg.
What is the prediction for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg?
On our numbers SSV Jahn Regensburg have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 20% and MSV Duisburg 58%.
How many goals will there be in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg?
We expect about 4.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 81% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg?
Our predicted score is SSV Jahn Regensburg 1–2 MSV Duisburg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.3 goals in total.
When is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg (3. Liga) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
