Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Verl to win @ 1.75 – our chance 66% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVerl to win ✗66% · @1.75
Double chanceVerl or draw ✗85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.28
Verl vs Fortuna Köln preview and prediction
The match
The 3. Liga sees Verl take on Fortuna Köln on Saturday 29 August, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT) at Sportclub Arena. Verl are 17th with 12 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Fortuna Köln sit 19th on 10 points (in the bottom three). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Verl's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Hamburger SV 0–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 3.2 conceded.
Fortuna Köln's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Alemannia Aachen 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Fortuna Köln arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.3 for Verl and 1.0 for Fortuna Köln. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Verl to win at 1.75 – 66% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Verl or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Verl 2–1 Fortuna Köln. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Verl66%fair 1.51 · @1.75
Draw19%fair 5.28 · @3.95
Fortuna Köln15%fair 6.72 · @4.10
3.34Expected goals
2.32Verl xG
1.02Fortuna Köln xG
61%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–010%
1–18%
1–08%
3–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Verl 2.3 – 1.0 Fortuna Köln expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Verl to win✗
66%
1.51
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Verl or draw✗
85%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.60
Half-time result
Verl ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Verl / FT Verl✗
44%
2.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.28
–
Form
Verl – last 6
LLLLWL
24 Aug
vs Hamburger SV
0–3
L
15 Aug
vs MSV Duisburg
2–4
L
9 Aug
@ Alemannia Aachen
1–4
L
1 Aug
@ RB Leipzig
0–4
L
26 Jul
vs Bremer SV
6–1
W
18 Jul
@ VfL Wolfsburg
0–3
L
1.5Scored / game
3.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Fortuna Köln – last 6
DLWWWW
15 Aug
vs Alemannia Aachen
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Kickers Offenbach
3–0
W
25 Jul
@ VVV Venlo
1–0
W
18 Jul
vs Borussia M'gladbach II
1–0
W
15 Jul
@ Eintracht Trier
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Verl and Fortuna Köln.
Our pick is Verl or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Verl vs Fortuna Köln?
On our numbers Verl have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Fortuna Köln 15%.
How many goals will there be in Verl vs Fortuna Köln?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Verl vs Fortuna Köln?
Our predicted score is Verl 2–1 Fortuna Köln, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Verl vs Fortuna Köln?
Verl vs Fortuna Köln (3. Liga) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Sportclub Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
