Arsenal host Manchester City in the Community Shield on Sunday 16 August, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Principality Stadium.
Form guide
Arsenal's last 5: DLLWW Most recently they drew with Como 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Manchester City's last 5: WWDLD Most recently they beat Atletico Madrid 3–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 March 2026, finished Arsenal 0–2 Manchester City.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Arsenal and 1.3 for Manchester City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arsenal 37%, draw 24%, Manchester City 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Arsenal 1–1 Manchester City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arsenal37%fair 2.68 · @2.52
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.35
Manchester City39%fair 2.56 · @2.66
2.65Expected goals
1.30Arsenal xG
1.34Manchester City xG
59%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Arsenal 1.3 – 1.3 Manchester City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Arsenal vs Manchester City?
On our numbers Arsenal have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Manchester City 39%.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Manchester City?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Our predicted score is Arsenal 1–1 Manchester City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Arsenal vs Manchester City (Community Shield) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Principality Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
